Timothy Taylor, Stonegate, Richard Caring, trading, jobs market & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Unforeseen consequences of whatever action you think’s a good idea at the time are a bit of an irritation.

Or even foreseen consequences for that matter and I was thinking here specifically about bird-feeders.

Because you decide you’ll feed the birds and you think that’s job-done. Well, no. Because the squirrels will have everything and, even if you do keep the squirrels off (tips gratefully received), you find the birds can be picky, will fly into the feeder, chuck a few seeds around and then fly off again.

Indeed, our ‘stick-on-the-window feeders,’ which are interesting but definitely not squirrel-proof, attract blue tits who cast seeds and peanuts around willy-nilly before finding one to their liking.

And that’s attracted all kinds of wildlife – some rather unsavoury – to the area beneath the window including pheasants which, although they are reportedly 120x the weight of blue tits, don’t seem to have accumulated any of that in their brain and who, after they’ve scoffed everything in sight, scrat around dejectedly on the floor not bothering to look up and see there’s a treasure trove of food a couple of feet above their heads.

And then the rodents turn up and what they miss germinates and you have quite a mess on your hands but, after a wonderful weekend for the weather, let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Trading:

CGA has published its Daily Drinks Tracker for the last two weeks of May. In the first or the weeks under review, the week to 24 May, CGA reports that total LFL sales were up by 2%. It says beer was up 1.8% with cider, soft drinks, spirits and wine each down by 2%, 2.5%, 8.3% and 10.4% respectively…

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CGA reports for the second of the two weeks that total sales were minus 0.4%. Across drink types, cider and beer were up by 5.8% and 2.7% respectively whilst soft drinks, spirits and wine were down by 0.3%, 3.6% and 13.1%….

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UK Jobs market:

The health of the jobs market impacts demand. The Times reports that this is currently ‘flashing a warning sign.’ It says ‘that since [chancellor Rachel] Reeves’s £25 billion tax raid on employers in her October budget, the number of people on official payrolls has fallen by 276,000….’

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Other news:

The French Cognac industry’s main suppliers are reported set to offer minimum export prices in an attempt to head off Chinese tariffs due to kick in next month.

COMPANY NEWS:

Stonegate, the UK’s largest pub company comprising Enterprise Inns’ leased and tenanted estate and a number of managed brands, is set to cut up to 150 jobs at head office, The Telegraph reports. It says that the company ‘has been working with restructuring specialists at AlixPartners over recent months….’

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Timothy Taylor & Co has reported its FY numbers for the period ended 30 September 2024 to Companies House. During the year under review, the company increased turnover by 6.3% to £35.0m. Gross margin increased from 53.9% to 55.5% and gross profit rose from £17.7m to £19.4m…..

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City AM reports that the Richard Caring restaurant empire, which includes the Ivy Collection and Caprice Holdings, has demanded its suppliers take a 2.5 per cent ‘discount’, blaming ‘increased tax burden and cost of employment, cost of indirect products [and] services and also direct cost of food and beverage….’

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Heineken has reported set to spend around US$2.75 billion in building a new brewery in Kanasín, Yucatán in Mexico.

Greene King, which had been in advanced talks to sell the business to RedCat, is now set to keep and continue to operate its Venture Hotels arm.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Hostel chain Safestay this morning reports that it ‘has been awarded a business interruption insurance claim totalling £1.4 million (net of associated professional fees). The claim relates to the business interruption experienced by the Group during the Covid-19 pandemic.’ It says ‘payment of the claim will be received by the Group within the next 21 days and will be recognised as a post-balance sheet event in Safestay’s forthcoming 2024 financial results, which the Group plans to release later this month.’

Airbnb has suggested that it is being scapegoated and blamed for ‘overtourism’ in Europe. It says that the blame lies with the hotel industry with VP Theo Yedinsky telling the FT that ‘we end up getting a lot of the blame, especially in city centres [but] the reality is overtourism is really driven by the hotels.’ He says picking on Airbnb is ‘totally unfair’”

The BBC has run a programme exposing sharp practises at UK holiday parks as a part of its Scams & Scandals series. It aired claims of sharply raised site fees without warning, misleading claims re the above and regarding likely resale values from salesmen and overoptimistic claims of how much rental units could generate for their owners…

The FT reports that an analysis of figures from the Transportation Security Administration by TS Lombard shows that ‘US consumers are paring back their vacation plans and delaying travel bookings until the last moment, in what economists warned could be a red flag for growth in the world’s largest economy.’

OTHER LEISURE:

Entain has updated on the performance of BetMGM saying that it is upgrading its FY2025 guidance. It says that ‘continuing strong momentum supports increased confidence’ and adds that the ‘positive momentum seen during 1Q 2025 has continued for the period 2Q 2025 to 13 June 2025, with strong Net Revenue growth across both iGaming and Online Sports.’ It says that ‘trading for the period is broadly consistent with +34% YoY Net Revenue growth delivered in 1Q 2025…’

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A report prepared for the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Racing and Bloodstock has warned that tax changes and affordability checks designed to stop problem gambling alongside the lack of an overhaul of racing’s main funding system may damage the industry…

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Accounts filed at Companies’ House show that health club chain David Lloyd make a profit for the first time since being acquired by private equity giant TDR Capital. Pre-tax profit for 2024 came in at £32.2m.

The FT reports that StubHub International, the secondary ticketing group, has warned that it will leave the UK market if the Labour government imposes a stringent cap on the resale prices of tickets in the wake of the Oasis debacle.

Fitness club 1Rebel has announced it is to open a flagship site in Chelsea this summer.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The Bank of England’s MPC will announce its decision on UK interest rates on Thursday. Economists are suggesting no change with weaker economic stats being matched by geopolitical concerns that may push up some commodity prices.

The Guardian reports that the OBR is likely to downgrade its estimates for the UK economy (and hence for tax receipts in the absence of tax rises) before the autumn budget.

Sterling slightly higher at $1.3544 and €1.1747. Oil down a little over the weekend (but up sharply since Israel’s attack on Iran) at $74.81. UK 10 year gilt yield up 7 basis points at 4.57%. World markets mostly lower on Friday but London set to open around 9 points higher as at c7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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