Early Covid pandemic tweets from the archive

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Langton is on half-term hols this week and we’ve organised the weather nicely.

Just Yorkshire but hey, that’ll do. Pubs, walks and more pubs, what’s not to like?

We’ll try to get a stub of an email out and intend to be active on Twitter. Back properly on 7 June.

IN THE NEWS:

We may have overused the phrase ‘elephants in the room’ but it seems appropriate with regard to the major issues facing the sector. These are labour shortages, inflation, accrued debt (bank, landlord and to government) and ‘other’ (including supply chain issues etc.) The first of these issues is very much in the news at the moment.

Labour issues – trade bodies: 

• CGA and Fourth reported yesterday that ‘nine in 10 hospitality business leaders expect to face staff shortages this year.’ The jointly produced Business Confidence Survey says ‘half (51%) of those responding to the poll anticipate shortages in all roles, with another 39% concerned about back of house roles only.’ See our earlier comments for the Langton view re restricted service, inflation and the like.

• The survey says ‘shortages appear to have caught many employers by surprise’ adding that ‘half (51%) of leaders have found that the reduced recruitment pool has been a bigger issue than they anticipated since restrictions began to ease.’ CGA says ‘it’s already apparent that recruitment and retention are going to be huge concerns for hospitality over the remainder of 2021. Post-Brexit shortages had been expected for some time, but COVID-19 has multiplied the difficulties and many businesses are already facing a staffing crisis at the worst possible time.’

• Meanwhile, UKH and the DWP have launched the ‘Jobcentre Plus initiative to help promote sector opportunities to jobseekers.’ Kate Nicholls, CEO of UKHospitality, said: “We’re delighted to be working with the Government to restore confidence in a sector which is a stable employer for millions of skilled and unskilled workers across a wide range of diverse roles.’ The DWP says ‘it’s been a challenging time for the hospitality sector but our roadmap is giving employers the confidence to hire, and our brilliant Work Coaches are helping them recruit local talent.’ UKH adds a recent survey ‘found thousands of vacancies at all levels in the sector. The vast majority (80%) reported vacancies for front-of-house roles, such as waiting and bar staff, and 85% are in need of chefs. Nearly half have housekeeping vacancies and 43% are looking for assistant or general managers. The survey suggested a
current vacancy rate across the sector of 9% – which implies a shortage of 188,000 workers.’

• And the British Beer & Pub Association has warned of ‘serious’ staff shortages. It has written to Employment Minister, Mims Davies, ‘urging the Government to urgently do what it can to help the sector with such staff shortages.’ It says ‘the shortages have been caused by an array of factors, from the labour intensive requirements of social distancing restrictions the sector has to operate under, to EU nationals not returning to the UK as well as disconnect in staff on furlough returning to work in pubs particularly those with double jobs.’ The BBPA says ‘in some instances pubs are having to reduce capacity or close entirely because they don’t have the staff to open.’

Labour issues – company comment: 

• JDW’s comments and the way they were interpreted are covered in the Press. Other operators have told Langton that they are facing issues. The word ‘issue’ is synonymous in this case with ‘problem’. The Telegraph, embroiled in a spat with JDW over word-usage and interpretation, says ‘Michel Roux Jr of Le Gavroche in Mayfair calls the difficulty in finding enough staff ‘incredibly frustrating and painful’.’ It says some restaurants are not serving lunch ‘as staff shortages bite.’ It quotes Hawksmoor as closing all but one of its nine venues for lunchtime sittings. Hawksmoor says it is on a “permanent recruitment footing”, adding that “even we are finding it hard to get staff”. The Telegraph says ‘Hawksmoor pays its waiters an average salary of £35,000.’

Labour shortages – results:

• More when we get back from hols but results are basically reduced service, restricted supply, wage inflation and higher prices.

FROM THE ARCHIVE:

Listening to the highlights of Dominic Cummings’ excoriation of everything not Dominic Cummings last week brought back to mind the early days of the pandemic.

Remember the heavily guarded buses of travellers returning from China, the shunned cruise ships and then the ‘don’t go to work but go to work but don’t go to work’ advice?

And then the ‘don’t go to the pub…shut the pubs…stay at home’ series of comments?

Although we poked fun at the overuse of the word ‘unprecedented’, these were unprecedented times.

And then the loo-roll panic, the PPE, testing etc. Weird times & we all lived through them.

Herewith, some of our early Tweets. They’re unedited and hopefully give an idea of the struggle to get through uncharted waters. They’re under a few headings, Questions, Observations, Dilemmas & sundry. We’ve left them in date order as that seems to make more sense. Some more tomorrow.

THE TWEETS:

Thurs 23 Apr 2020:

• Move to have word ‘unprecedented’ sanctioned as illegal well underway. But search also now on for words to replace ‘horrible’ as UK Services PMI (50.0 = standstill, estimate for April c30.0) comes in at 12.3. One analyst: ‘It’s what you see when you look out the window’.

• Covid ££ side effects #52. Will more companies avoid audits (and auditors) at H1s, deal with the full year when it’s unavoidable. We bet yes. Nobody wants to talk about Kevin (in this case Going Concern). Best to address in the light of more knowledge (good or bad).

Fri 24 Apr 2020:

• Covid ££ side effects #53. Gov. attempts to help (e.g. moving guarantee from 80% of loan to 100%) could slow down loan-approval process. Banks, understandably, may tear up nearly-completed agreements & go for the 100% version instead. Time & more money wasted on advisors…

• Covid ££ side effects #54. Plenty of bad haircuts & beards out there. Langton draws the line at DIY dentistry. Sales of shampoo & deodorant falling. Skyping in your PJ’s? Yeah, aren’t we all!?

Mon 27 Apr 2020:

• Covid ££ side effects #55. Winners propelled forward & losers see hopes dashed. Winners: Netflix, Zoom, Skype etc., bookcase & vanity-wall manufacturers, home delivery. Losers: all bar the above. We’re told shampoo & deodorant sales have dropped sharply!

• Covid ££ side effects #56. More on fragility, be grateful for what you’ve got, etc. Covid-19 a shock to our ‘we’ve got nature tamed’ arrogance? Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451. The darkness can always get it. Lighter note, the sun’s shining.

• COVID Qs #15. Looking desperately for good news, is there a feeling of liberation across execs as they can think strategically and don’t have to hit this week’s numbers, next week’s numbers etc. Nice thought but, on balance, probably not yet.

• Covid ££ side effects #57. Government to underwrite 100% of loans to small companies. With timing as important as it is now, will banks tear up docs relating to 80% loans and start it all again. Can’t do right for doing wrong??

Tues 28 Apr 2020:

• COVID Qs #16. Where are the winners? Thin on the ground. Delivery, maybe but TSCO is cutting staff, SBRY says margins impacted by security, screening & MKS says ‘food trading has been adversely affected by lockdown.’ We’re ‘all in this together’? But not in a good way

• Covid ££ side effects #58. New Normal to feature Dead Men Walking? Will ‘zombie’ be the new look? Companies too indebted & with too little revenue to move forward, too fearful to retrench & with creditors & administrators too pre-occupied to pull the plug. Hope not.

Thurs 30 Apr 2020:

• Lockdown observations #1. Doing the quarterly VAT has lost none of its magic just because there’s a pandemic raging. Still succeeds in making plunging he septic tank & cutting the grass something to look forward to.

• COVID Qs #17. Where are the winners no.2. Sainsbury says extra security, protection & cleaning costs not quite offset by £450m business rates windfall. Fuel sales cratered, not much clothing or non-food action. Even Deliveroo is laying off staff.

• Covid ££ side effects #59. Have we created legions of Cpt Mainwairings? Keep off the grass, turn off that light. Older social justice warriors, wielding weaponised frowns & only an inch from posting poison pen letters, informing on their neighbours etc. How will we unwind that?

Fri 1 May 2020:

• Lockdown observations #2. Carluccio is with the administrators and Busaba, Vapiano and now Prezzo are ‘examining their financial options’. This is looking like a well-trod path. GBK’s parent says won’t support any more & possible others to follow.

• COVID Qs #18. Where are the winners no.3. British Airways, Ryanair cutting jobs. Yes, understood. Trip advisor making redundancies? A little less obvious. Deliveroo also letting staff go, the supermarkets winding down excess staff numbers. Not many winners around.

• Covid ££ side effects #60. We may have changed what is ‘normal’. Retail Economics says only 10% of consumers would ‘return to normal’ if the lockdown was pulled. 77% would be very or somewhat cautious. Frowning and tutting at fellow commuters may be mandatory.

Mon 4 May 2020:

• Covid ££ side effects #61. Polarising society? Lockdown zealots at one end with their weaponised frowns & empowered tutting & conspiracy, 5G Big Brother nut jobs at the other. Where’s the road back to normality? Note to self 3mths ago, where the hell am I?

• Lockdown observations #3. Gregg’s plans to reopen stores binned. Fears of pasty addicts being infiltrated by lockdown-defiance crowds? On balance, not a good look. Probably a good call.

• Lockdown observations #4. Business plan, thinking, vegetation, vegetate, to be devoid of conscious thought. Hence ignore the in-tray and, channelling one’s inner Trump, ‘it’s tremendous, it will all just, just go away, it’s like magic…’

• Covid ££ side effects #62. Questions for you. For a tenner, have we done a good job with lockdown? Easy one, answer is ‘yes’. And the second question, a tad tougher, this one. For a trillion quid, how do we get the country back to work?

• COVID Qs #19: Is it a coincidence that so many of the 2018 CVA companies are calling in the administrators or special advisors or both? No. Is this a market to sell mediocre assets into? It most certainly is not. Seems like creditors akimbo.

Tues 5 May 2020:

• Covid ££ side effects #63. Is the impact of Covid-19 like that of a neutron bomb from the bad old Cold War days? Airline usage down 97% to 99%. But, weirdly, the planes, the airports & the people are still there, its just the equity value might disappear?

• Covid ££ side effects #64. Will the length of the lockdown and the mental capacity to work be inversely linked? It could be pretty difficult scrubbing the rust off. Working practises could be changed (some better, some less so) for years to come.

Tuesday 12 May 2020:

• Furlough scheme extended to end-October. Lifesaver but the first 3mths could cost taxpayers perhaps £30bn and, even with reduced numbers, the next 4mths could cost another £30bn. Government has the desire to pay but it won’t always have the ability.

Weds 13 May 20:

• Furlough scheme is like a parachute with holes in it. Better than nothing. The bigger the ‘employer contribution’, the bigger the holes. But better to hit the ground at 20-30mph than at terminal velocity (which apparently is 122mph).