Inflation, labour, late night, Budget, BrewDog, Nero, PwC on hotels etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

I swear if another social media site jiggles at me or flashes shapes at me & tells me I’ve gone to sleep and I should be posting some nonsense, I’ll punch my screen.

Because, as several social media bosses, many of whom wouldn’t use their own services, say, if you can’t see what the product is, then you’re the product as charities these websites aren’t and, though I’m constantly disappointed in this aspiration, I’d like to hope that my days of doing a reverse Robin Hood and giving my hard-earned farthings to some rich geezer in Northern California to put towards another yacht are over.

However, since many of the websites reward activity with little dopamine hits in the shape of likes or ‘you’re getting noticed’ popups, I’m as vulnerable to manipulation as pretty much anybody else. And being packaged up as a malleable muppet whose intentions can be predicted by an algorithm and sold to some other multinational corporation is a price you just can help repeatedly paying.

Anyway, enough of that. I must get back on Twit Book or whatever. On to the news.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation:

The Morning Advertiser has reported that 81% of operators will increase prices this year. This isn’t said to be specifically as a result of VAT going up (or any other single factor) and, over a full 12mth period, it is likely that many operators would have tweaked prices in a ‘normal’ year. However, it does suggest inflationary pressures remain with us.

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Labour.

The Morning Advertiser says that actively trying to create a high wage economy is not a good idea. Many employers would agree with this. The MA says that high wages lead to higher prices because, at the end of the day, what else is going to happen. It refers to product, labour and energy prices as ongoing areas of concern.

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Night time industry issues:

The NTIA has commissioned a report that finds ‘the UK’s night time cultural economy sector has been ravaged by the pandemic, with around 86,000 jobs lost in the sector since the 2019 high.’ It says ‘while the Government is portraying shortages in many sectors as being ‘transitional’ on the path to a high wage economy, there are fears that many of the jobs lost to the pandemic in the night time economy sector will lost for good, with businesses closing and persistently lower demand for services.’ More on this & on door-staff shortages.

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Treasury Budget comment & lobbying.

The British Beer & Pub Association has reported that yesterday ‘met with HM Treasury officials to make representations for the brewing and pub sector ahead of the Budget on October 27th.’ It says it ‘highlighted the vital role pubs and brewing play in supporting over 900,000 jobs in communities across the UK and contributing £26 billion to the UK economy across towns, villages and cities.’ It ‘underlined in the meeting the importance of co-investment from Government in the sector in the form of a fairer tax burden and more level playing field with other European nations post-Brexit.’ The BBPA particularly asked for a cut in beer duty, an extension in business rates relief and a permanently lowering of the rate of VAT for all food and drink sold in pubs.

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The Sunday Times suggests that chancellor Rishi Sunak will announce an overhaul in the way that alcohol is taxed as part of next week’s Budget announcement. A simplified duty system would be welcomed by many parties.

Mr Sunak is reported to be considering an e-commerce tax according to sources tapped by the Daily Telegraph. The paper says ‘Whitehall insiders said that a so-called “Amazon tax” under a wider business rates shake-up is “clearly the direction of travel” being considered by the Chancellor, but that final decisions will be pushed out beyond the upcoming Budget.’

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

The Times reports that BrewDog is to ‘delay a planned £2.1 billion flotation amid turbulence in the hospitality industry.’ It says that the CEO James Watt has ‘said a listing might not take place until 2023 after advisers and banks were said to have recommended that a delay would be prudent given pandemic-related issues facing the hospitality industry.’ The company has denied that this is in relation to former employees saying that a ‘culture of fear’ was a feature there.

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Giggling Squid is to open its 40th site, in Hornchurch, Essex

The BBC quips that Christmas may be stuck in a shipping container somewhere.

Caffe Nero has updated on trading saying that it has achieved 11 consecutive months of positive cashflow  and says that ‘sales increased by 160% from January 2021 – October 2021.’ It reports that ‘sales are now c. 87% of pre-Covid levels’ and adds that ‘new channels and customer numbers are building rapidly.’ The company concludes that it ‘intends to open dozens of new stores in the coming 12 months.’

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The MCA reports New World Trading Company as set to open 8-10 sites a year after opening only three in 2019 and a planned six in 2020.

Tossed has reported to Companies House that it appointed a voluntary liquidator on 15 September.

UK Hospitality is ‘inviting operators and industry representatives to attend an industry event at COP 26 next month.’ It says ‘they will join MPs, Scottish Parliamentarians, sustainability experts and suppliers to celebrate the great strides the hospitality industry is making on its sustainability journey. CEO Kate Nicholls says ‘COP 26 will be a significant showcase for the UK and this event is an opportunity for our industry to shine a light on the good work that is being done to ensure a sustainable future for all of us. It is vital that the entire industry is represented, and that everyone participates in a conversation that will shape the future of our industry and the country, and so we urge anyone who is interested in attending to come along and be part of something significant.’

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

PwC has updated with its views on the hotel industry, saying that trading for the industry is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. It says next year will be better than this but concludes that occupancy rates at the end of 2022 will be between 70% and 90% of pre-pandemic levels in London. In the regions, it could be between 87% and 96% of pre-pandemic levels.

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TruTravels is offering savings of up to 40% on its Latin America and Maldives trips following the government’s removal of a number of countries from its red list, reports Travel Weekly.

Pragma Consulting reports on airport passenger numbers saying that, compared to 2020, July this year saw passenger numbers at European airports more than doubled. It says, however, that the summer was nonetheless ‘disappointing’ but says that, once again, there is now ‘further cause for optimism with several announcements that restrictions are being eased: the reduction of the red list in the UK and further afield, the opening up of Singapore, Australia and America.’ This may prompt more airport coffee shop and food operators to reopen their sites.

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Destination Analyst in the US suggests that, whilst ‘not quite at Summer levels, Americans are gaining back their sense of normalcy.’ It says that 82% of Americans have a ‘ready-to-travel mindset’ and says that 50.5% believe that travel activities are safe on average.

STR reports that the European hotel development pipeline is up by around 6% on average. It says that Germany and the UK are the numbers one and two markets in terms of new build in Europe.

OTHER LEISURE:

888 has updated on Q3 trading saying that revenue was $229.9m against $215.6m last year. It says this has been a ‘quarter of significant strategic progress for 888’ and adds that ‘Q3 performance underpins the Board’s full year expectations.’

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FINANCE & MARKETS:

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, seems to have ditched at least one of this two eye-patches and seen that inflation is an issue. He says the bank ‘have to act’ to deal with rising prices. Bailey says ‘monetary policy cannot solve supply-side problems – but it will have to act and must do so if we see a risk, particularly to medium-term inflation and to medium-term inflation expectations.’ He may be suggesting that, though he cannot influence supply, he is able to depress demand. What a job.

China’s economic growth slowed to 4.9% in the three months to end-Sept from almost 8% in the prior quarter.

Rightmove has said that house prices rose in every region of the UK last month.

Sterling mixed at $1.3768 and €1.182, Oil price down a little at $64.60. UK 10yr gilt yield up 4bps at 1.13%. World markets mixed with London set to open up around 7pts as at 7.00am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

Nick is taking a short break.