Insolvencies, trading, demand, Nightcap, ESC, Everyman & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Good morning & welcome to another working week.

And it’s Monday to boot but, whilst I can hardly claim that it’s in the least work-related, I was considering just how easy it is to conflate verbs such as ‘do’ and ‘know’ with regard to our faithless family dog.

Because, though he does quite a lot, much of it indescribably gross, he arguably doesn’t know much at all.

For example, he’ll come to the door of an evening if I ask him if he wants to go out but, somewhere along the line, he’s got the idea that I want him to look earnestly into the darkness, sniff the air and then return to the rug in front of the fire thinking ‘job done’.

Of course he has no idea why I would invite him to partake in such a pointless task but his satisfaction and smug self-importance thereafter is boundless and I’ve never had the heart to rain on his parade.

Anyway, with the Christmas ads in full swing and various companies reporting, we’re on the lookout for excruciating and convoluted puns. The Sun had Young’s Pubs Mojito New High, which is just downright bad and Aldi, in selling its mince pies, say they’re a reward for ‘pudding’ up with me. Which we quite like.

Anyway no2, Hull City has managed to win two on the trot and still be fourth from bottom. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Accountancy firm UHY Hacker Young has reported that restaurant insolvencies rose by 31 per cent in the last quarter as outlets struggled to cover their costs. UHY reports that some 296 UK restaurants shut down in Q3 compared with 226 in Q2. UHY says that a lack of cash flow (as is often the case) was the final straw for most operators.

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Current trading:

Phil Tate, CGA Group CEO, told a consumer-focused panel at the Peach 20-20 conference that, despite having wiped out ‘tens of billions of pounds in sales’ for hospitality, the market is recovering. He says ‘yes, rolling sales are down, but year-on-year you can start to see the positivity coming through.’ He says consumers have missed the chance to go out. He says ‘we’ve gone 18 months without the sector and it’s reinvigorated the consumer appetite for us’. He adds ‘consumers’ expectations have never been as high as they are right now. We’ve been enjoying hospitality at home, and that trend’s sticking with us… so when we come back out into the marketplace our expectations are so high.’

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Inflation:

We have commented on ‘the wrong sort of inflation’ before. If the price of diamonds doubled, Langton wouldn’t notice. If the price of food, beer, petrol and heating oil shot up, we most certainly would. And we have. The Telegraph quotes BCA Research as saying that global food prices have risen to their highest levels since 1975 in real terms. It says ‘they will increase next year and remain elevated into 2023’. It says rises in the cost of energy will impact fertiliser costs, agriculture and distribution.

Demand:

Lumina Intelligence has reported that dine-in has continued to regain market share from delivery and takeaway sales. It says in its UK Eating Out Market Report 2021 that dine-in occasions rose from 70.6% in the 12 weeks ending 11 July to 74% by October as restrictions continued to be lifted and confidence returned. It says that delivery saw its share fall by 2.1% and click and collect declined by 1.5%.

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COMPANY & OTHER NEWS:

BrewDog opened its latest bar last Friday reports the MA. The unit, in Bradford, will see Red’s Ture BBQ take a kitchen residency, the third unit in which it does so.

Chicken giant 2 Sisters Food Group president Ranjit Singh Boparan has said that the temporary visa scheme for seasonal poultry workers has allowed his company to source up to 900 EU workers in the run-up to Christmas. He says ‘we’re well on the way to plugging the job gaps for the massive volume increases we get during this time of year.’ The company says there will be enough turkeys to satisfy demand.

Black Friday coming up this week. Whilst its on, not surprisingly, Friday, a lot of retailers seem to have stretched it for about a fortnight.

Single-use plastic items such as plates, cutlery and polystyrene cups, may be banned in England under proposed legislation. The proposals are put forward in a 12-week public consultation. It is reckoned that around 5bn separate pieces of plastic cutlery or flatware are used in the UK each year, but that only 10% are thereafter recycled.

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Nightcap has announced that it has ‘acquired the entire issued share capital of Barrio Familia Ltd’ and says ‘as a result of the Acquisition, the board of Nightcap expects that the Group’s results for the 53 weeks ending 3 July 2022 will be significantly ahead of current market expectations.’ It says ‘through the Acquisition, Nightcap has become the operator of an additional five bars.’

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Moody’s reports that US franchised restaurant operator 1011778 B.C. Unlimited Liability Co. which owns, operates and franchises about 18,923 Burger King, 5,137 Tim Hortons and more than 3,607 Popeyes restaurants, and which recently announced that it entered into an agreement to acquire all of the outstanding equity of Firehouse Restaurant Group, has made a credit negative move.

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Moody’s also reports that Brown-Forman Corporation’s proposal to pay a special one-time dividend of $1 per share, or $480 million, is credit negative as it takes money out of the company’s balance sheet and gives it to shareholders. It spells out that ‘the shareholder payment is credit negative because the cash paid to shareholders yields no benefit to the company’s operations and will no longer be available to reduce debt.’

The Sunday Times reports that alcohol free beer is set for a boost in the coming weeks. It reports on how ‘Heineken, the world’s second-largest brewer, said after five years of research it had finally solved the conundrum of how to serve non-alcoholic beer from kegs stored in the cellar rather than from a bottle or a can.’

Oakman Group is open the next round of its equity programme for reservations in a few weeks’ time. It says that, whilst this new round will be at the higher price of £3.20 per share, we are allowing people who have already registered/invested to invest under the old terms/price at the current price of £3.00. it says that, unlike previous rounds, which have only been available to sophisticated investors and high net worth individuals, this will be a full public offer open which means that everyone will be able to own part of their local.

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Leon is to open its first Drive-Thru restaurant this week. The unit is located in Leeds.

Starbucks workers at a store in Mesa, Arizona, have sent a letter to head office announcing their intent to form a union.

US coffee chain Dutch Bros has passed the 500 stores mark.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

The CAA has reported that air passenger numbers trebled in Q3 vs Q2 – but they still only stand at around 28% of pre-pandemic levels. Some 24.8m passengers flew into and out of the UK in Q3 vs 6.4m in Q2.

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Globe Data reports that there were 22% more capital transactions in the travel and tourism sector globally in October compared with September. It says ‘as several countries have eased travel restrictions and Covid-19 booster jabs are being rolled out, deal-making sentiments for the sector appear to be improving.’ It adds ‘however, a surge in Covid-19 cases in some of the key markets may pose further challenges and dent investor sentiment in the coming months.’

PM Boris Johnson’s plans to build a bridge or tunnel between Scotland and Northern Ireland have been scrapped.

The UK Trade and Business Commission heard from speakers saying that the future of outbound travel is at risk due to Brexit restrictions. European Pubs Limited which operates bars in French resorts and which previously hired 95% of its employees from the UK for its summer and winter seasons, says ‘when people talk about labour shortages they usually think about empty shelves in the UK, but the outbound tourist industry has been severely impacted by these new barriers to hiring UK workers in European resorts, and this could lead to less choice and higher costs for UK holidaymakers.’

Austria has imposed a full national Covid-19 lockdown, starting today. The lockdown, which is currently set for a ‘maximum of 20 days’, will nonetheless be causing some concerns as the ski-season kicks off.

Airlines in the UK are concerned that fee-rises at Heathrow will oblige them to pass on price increases to their customers, with a resultant potential loss of trade. Airlines UK, the association representing airlines told the CAA that such a move could divert tourists and investors to other European hubs.

Landal GreenParks is reported set to almost double the number of parks it has in the UK in 2022. The business currently has ten UK holiday parks.

OTHER LEISURE:

Everyman Media Group has updated on trading for its financial year (ending 30 December 2021) to date saying ‘admissions have been ahead of expectations since publishing its interim results in September 2021. Therefore, Group revenues and EBITDA for the financial year ending 30 December 2021 will exceed current market expectations.’

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Escape Hunt plc has updated on its placing and open offer saying that it ‘has received valid acceptances…in respect of 10,582,746 Open Offer Shares, including applications for 6,809,623 Open Offer Shares under the Excess Application Facility. This represents approximately 143 per cent. of the 7,385,007 Shares available under the Open Offer.’ ESC adds that it has raised, in aggregate, approximately £17.2 million (before expenses) through the Placing, Open Offer and Subscription.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The EY Item Club has cut its forecast for UK economic growth this year from 6.9% to 5.6%. it says that rising inflation and supply chain disruption have caused the reduction. It says that growth would also slow to 2.3 per cent in 2023, before stabilising at 1.8 per cent over the following two years.

Sterling mixed at $1.3444 and €1.1922. Oil lower at $78.59. UK 10yr gilt yield down 5bps at 0.87%. World markets lower on Friday but Far East better in Monday trade and London set to open up around 4pts.

The government borrowed £18.8 billion in October, the second highest October figure on record. Economists had been hoping for a lower figure of perhaps £13.8bn.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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