Cost of living, inflation, Carlsberg, Pret, Caffe Nero, Gatwick & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So the deer in the garden have a new game.

Eating the tulips apparently either a) got old for them rather quickly or b) they ran out of flowers after they’d eaten them down to stumps but, either way, they’ve move onto a new pastime, which could be descriptively entitled, Kicking All The Plant Pots Over.

The object here is, unsurprisingly, to overturn all the pots they can find. Even, and maybe especially, the very big ones.

There are extra points to be had for spilling the mud over the greatest area possible and, if they can eat – or at least smash up – whatever was in the pot to begin with, then they take maximum points.

They don’t appear to be tiring of this particular game and, since I’m not going to run around the garden at 5am with a football rattle and the dog isn’t the boisterous (and happily violent) puppy that he used to be, they’ve got the place to themselves.

Anyway, enough of that. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Cost of living crisis:

Economists predict that UK living standards are set to be cut by up to £2,500 per household. The Centre for Economics and Business Research consultancy said the gloomy forecasts would put pressure on the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to announce fresh help in his spring statement on 23 March.

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Higher fertiliser prices threaten higher food prices down the line.

The Federation of Wholesale Distributors has said that the hike in fuel prices will lead to people paying in shops and restaurants for food and other essentials. The Federation says ‘food price inflation is already happening, but this is going to make it worse, because there’ll be charges passed on to customers and then obviously to end users as well.’ Oil prices slide by more than 10% yesterday.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has said that the pre-existing cost of living crisis, now exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine, means that Chancellor Rishi Sunak faces a ‘huge judgment call’ next month over whether he should borrow more or push through tax increases that will further reduce real incomes.

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Further taxpayer support sought.

UK Hospitality CEO Kate Nicholls has told the DCMS that keeping VAT at 12.5% is critically important for the industry. She says ‘there is no other industry that will generate jobs, growth and investment at pace across the UK and deliver levelling up in practice.’

Russia boycott:

Starbucks has said it will cease shipment of all Starbucks products to Russia. The sites are run by franchisee, Kuwaiti company Alshaya, in Russia.

Coca-Cola HBC yesterday gave an update on its Russian operations (on the back of comments made by brand owner Coca Cola). It said ‘following the recent announcement by The Coca-Cola Company to suspend its business in Russia, we respect the decision and are working in close alignment on its implementation. We will thoughtfully consider the interests of our employees, customers, and suppliers in Russia.’

Shepherd Neame reports that it has stopped exporting to Russia and has launched a Just Giving campaign in order to help victims of the invasion. Shepherd Neame is not stocking any Russian products across its estate.

Carlsberg. Suspends guidance, flags up write-downs.

CEO Cees ‘t Hart has commented on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying ‘this cannot be business as usual. Last week, we announced that there would be no new investments or exports from Carlsberg Group into Russia. Since then, we have ceased all advertising…and we will stop producing and selling our flagship brand, Carlsberg, in the Russian market. Baltika Breweries will be run as a separate business, with the purpose of sustaining our employees and their families.’ Some one in five Carlsberg employees globally work in Russia.

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Recovery from Covid:

Pret has told Bloomberg that sales at its sites on Wall Street approached a pandemic high last week. London is a shade better still.

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Mintel comments on leisure and travel trends, saying ‘the successful vaccination rollout across the spring of 2021 and into the summer has supported an almost total relaxation of social distancing measures in the UK.

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COMPANY NEWS:

The MCA reports that RedCat Pub Company has acquired the Wynnstay Hotel & Spa in Oswestry. RedCat’s subsidiary, The Coaching Inn Group, will now operate 25 historic coaching inns in market towns across the UK.

Caffe Nero will open a new flagship store at Stansted airport with another at Belfast airport and 6 further new store openings scheduled in the coming months.

NRN in the US says it is aware of at least 12 major restaurant chains that are increasing their prices.

LEISURE TRAVEL & HOTELS:

Gatwick reports passenger numbers down 38.5% last year to 6.3 million due to Covid travel restrictions. Annual losses for 2021 were trimmed to £370.6 million against £465.5 million the previous year. However, the airport’s parent company said ‘2022 is likely to see less restrictions in place than in 2021, allowing the recovery of international travel.’

A Labour MP said that the end of tax-free shopping for international tourists in the UK is hampering visitor expenditure in the country. Paul Barnes, CEO of the Association of International Retail (AIR), said many high-spending visitors from the Gulf and Far East were now choosing to visit EU destinations instead of the UK as they could buy items at a discount of about 20%.

STR reports that western hotel firms, which have either assets on the ground or long-standing relationships with franchisees, ‘are not prepared to abandon franchise contracts in Russia quite yet, but are closely watching developments in that region of the world.’

Travel Weekly reports that the domestic cruise market boomed last summer, with Viking, MSC Cruises, Virgin Voyages and a host of others participating in the market. Travel Weekly wrote ‘the cruises were deemed a huge success, showing the best of Britain to the British’.

OTHER LEISURE:

Sky Vegas has been fined £1.2m for sending free casino ‘spins’ to recovering addicts during the industry’s annual Safer Gambling Week. The government is in the middle of a review of gambling laws, with proposals to be published in a white paper expected within weeks.

Property tycoon Nick Candy is working on a £2.5bn bid to buy Chelsea from Roman Abramovich, who has received an offer from a consortium fronted by Todd Boehly and Hansjörg Wyss. Candy is reportedly looking to form a consortium with American investors. It has been reported that Abramovich, who has faced calls in parliament for him to be sanctioned since the invasion of Ukraine, is looking for as much as £4bn for Chelsea.

Apple has increased the price of its cheapest iPhone by £20, and has announced a handful of new products. Apple’s share price is down by more than 10% over the last month amid a crash in technology stocks.

Shares in Photo-Me International fell yesterday after a takeover bid for the company lapsed. Tibergest PTE had made an offer in January after it went through 30%. The investor yesterday said that it had not had sufficient acceptances to proceed with its bid.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Writing in The Telegraph, Jeremy Warner says that chancellor Rishi Sunak may be forced to delay April’s planned NI increase and introduce windfall profits taxes on energy companies.

Sterling mixed at $1.3174 and €1.1909. Oil price sharply lower at $112.32. UK 10yr gilt yield up 9bps at 1.52%. World markets strong yesterday. London set to open up around 32pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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