Wages, inflation, Virgin Wines, footfall, BrewDog, holiday restrictions etc.:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

Dogs seem to be very good at sensing your moment of maximum weakness.

Meaning they seem to know that, if they’re going to get a treat for doing something that they should be doing anyway – coming in at night after a loo-break in the garden or returning to the house after sunning themselves on the grass for an hour or two – the best time to exert leverage is when you’re either shouting for them in your PJs at a quarter to midnight on a worknight or trying to call them in during the day because you have to rush to catch a train.

And then, oblivious to any harsh language, threats of vengeance etc they’ll deign to accept a chew stick or, preferably, a bit of bacon from the fridge in order to fall in line before slumping down and doing their best, butter wouldn’t melt impression.

Anyway, there are things to do so let’s move on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Cost of living crisis:

In many ways, this hasn’t yet started. And, though stories of things getting tougher abound, they can in some ways distract from the bigger picture, which maintains that there will be less money to go around. Affirmation bias is a real thing. We know that to a hammer everything’s a nail but would welcome stories (if there are any) of prices falling and of things getting easier. In the meantime: 

City AM points out Spare Room research suggesting that the cost of renting a room in London has risen by £1,000 per year since its low point during the pandemic.

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The AA says that diesel has hit £1.73 a litre. It does say that ‘wild’ pump prices should stabilise and that prices could ease back in the coming days.

Labour is calling on the government to do more to help families cope with the ‘spiralling cost of living crisis’.

The Resolution Foundation says that the cost of living for poorer families could rise by 10% this year if the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has a sustained impact on food prices.

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The New Economics Foundation has suggested that around a third of households – or as many as 23.4m people – will have to cut back on some basics once NIC, food, energy and fuel costs increase and interest rates continue to rise.

Earnings:

The ONS comments this morning on average earnings in the three months to end-Jan saying that, including bonuses, they were up by 4.8% on a year earlier. Excluding bonuses, wages were up by 3.8%. Both numbers are a shade ahead of expectations. Regular pay, however, fell in real terms.

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Footfall.

Springboard reports that ‘footfall across UK retail destinations rose by 0.9% last week from the week before, driven by a rise in high streets and shopping centres.’ Last week on last year comps are somewhat misleading as the UK was in lockdown in 2021. For the record, Springboard reports that footfall was up 135.5% year on year.

Ukraine:

UKH says that it has been ‘inundated with offers of help and support’ from hospitality companies offering spare rooms and food parcels. No doubt, given the shortage of labour in the industry, there will be the offer of jobs as well.

Labour:

The ONS has updated on the UK labour market for the quarter to end-Jan saying that the ‘November 2021 to January 2022 estimates show a continuing recovery in the labour market compared with the previous three-month period (August to October 2021), with an increase in the employment rate and a decrease in the unemployment rate, while economic inactivity increased on the quarter.’

City AM reports that the number of whistleblower reports relating to alleged National Minimum Wage breaches in the retail sector saw a 37% increase in the last year. Figures show that 235 complaints were made in the retail sector in 2020 to 2021; hospitality also experienced an increase in whistleblower reports – from 354 to 408.

Other:

The MA reports that some energy companies are refusing to supply pubs with power, claiming hospitality businesses are too ‘risky’ for safe contracts.

The Great Manchester night-time economy adviser Sacha Lord claims the cost of living crisis could usher in a ‘new period of darkness’ for the sector. Lord said the current cost of inflation and economic instability has exacerbated the financial pressures on operators in the night time economy, the majority of whom are already devastated by two years of low trading and who are struggling to overcome Covid-related debt.

Foodservice analyst Peter Backman has commented on the news that Doordash was said to have made a merger approach to Deliveroo, saying that, as the largest restaurant delivery company in the US with a market share of close to 50%, Doordash was still looking for opportunities to grow its footprint elsewhere.

COMPANY NEWS:

BrewDog CEO James Watt is reported to have hired private investigators to seek out information about people he says were taking part in a smear campaign against him.

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Virgin Wines UK has reported H1 numbers to 31 December 2021 saying that total revenue came in at £40.6m, up 55% on the 6mths to 31 December 2019. PBT is £3.2m, against £3.4m in the 6mths to end-Dec 2020.

State of Play, the operator of Bounce and Hijingo Bingo, has raised $35m, which will support its growth and enable the group to ‘harness structural tailwinds’ in the experiential entertainment sector, and to fulfil the potential of its technology-enabled leisure concepts. It will also enable the acceleration of the roll-out of Flight Club in North America, with two more locations in Atlanta and Las Vegas expected to open by the end of this year, taking its Flight Club estate to six.

Burger King UK has launched its first temporary meat-free restaurant, located at its Leicester Square flagship restaurant between 14th March and 10th April.

The empty Joules on 294 High Street, Lincoln, is set to be turned into a Franco Manca. Chairman of Franco Manca David Page said ‘We will announce our opening date in due course, and we look forward to welcoming guests very soon.’

The latest KAM Media Operator Managed Index has listed Proper Pubs in first place, with an overall satisfaction score of 8.2/10. Proper Pubs is the operator managed platform of Hawthorn, The Community Pub Company.

Nightjar is set to open a second site in London in April, located in Kingly Court, Soho. The 85-cover bar will have ‘all the swagger of Shoreditch with the style and sauce of Soho’.

McColl’s has opened its 200th Morrisons Daily store, with the latest being located in Stockport. The store conversion programme recommenced in early February following a scheduled pause over the Christmas and New Year period.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Transport secretary Grant Shapps has said that all remaining Covid travel measures will be scrapped as a part of the “Living with Covid” plan.

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STR reports that ‘London’s hotel industry reported month-over-month performance improvement.’ It says occupancy was up to 58.8% with average rate at £130.79 and REVPAR of £76.88. It adds ‘the occupancy level was the highest in the market since November 2021 but still 25% below the pre-pandemic comparable from 2019. ADR, on the other hand, was just 1.6% lower than February 2019.’

OTHER LEISURE:

The EU has agreed to add Roman Abramovich to the EU list of Russian billionaires sanctioned following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Sky reports that music industry leaders are urging Chancellor Rishi Sunak to drop plans to put VAT on music tickets back up to 20% next month. Trade body UK Music says the price rise would represent a major obstacle for the industry as it continues to build back after Covid.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

Unemployment – see Pubs & Restaurants above.

Sterling mixed at $1.3047 and €1.1877. Oil price $8 or so lower overnight at $101.41. UK 10yr gilt yield higher at 1.61%. World markets broadly better yesterday but London set to open down by around 58 points as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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