Costs & pricing, consumer spending, confidence, insolvencies & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

*Guaranteed April Fool’s Free Zone*.

Don’t want to be a grinch about it but, although there are no fewer fools in April than in any other month, there aren’t any (intentional) April Fool’s jokes in this email.

Because it’s intensely irritating when you pick up a bit of news & share it only to find it was an April Fool’s joke, particularly as many of them aren’t really funny at all.

I mean the classic, ‘Spaghetti Tree Blight in Italy’ type stories have been done and the ‘Sainsbury 4pt Milk is £1.25’ no, ha, ha, it’s £1.15, just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

Best stop there as I don’t particularly want to become a target for sophisticated jokers and, on that point, you only have until noon to land a joke, no point tripping someone up next week. Still, if you have any good ones, you can always share…

Anyway, there was snow on the ground our neck of the woods yesterday morning and there’s more coming down this morning. Won’t last long so have a good weekend and on to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Cost and price rises:

There is a lot of press on price rises. We would caution that making price rises stick is never as easy as it might sound, particularly in price-sensitive areas with lots of competition and plenty of substitute products. This is particularly an issue in hospitality where the sofa, a can of beer and a home-cooked meal compete with the industry’s products.

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More on price rises. Manchester night-time economy advisor Sacha Lord has said that there may be a 16 to 20 pence rise in the cost of an average pint across the region. JDW has put up prices by 10p and 20p depending on geography and Marston’s has put up most prices by around 20p with some rising by more.

The British Free Range Egg Producers Association is calling on supermarkets to raise the price of eggs by 40p a dozen reports City AM. It says ‘there have been small rises in the price of eggs in shops, but that money has evaporated before it gets to the farm gate. It’s the same old story of the farmer at the bottom of the chain being the last to see any price rise.’ See also Finance & Markets comments from the BCC.

The consumer:

Hardly uplifting but The Telegraph puts it succinctly when it headlines ‘Brace, brace, brace.’ It points out that council tax bills rise this week and, when added to rises in the cost of energy and food, it says ‘a typical family will be almost £1,000 a year worse off from Friday.’

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Sky reports that, from today, as the fuel price cap rises, some 2.5m families may move into ‘fuel stress’, a situation where families are spending 10% of their income on energy. This may put downward pressure on non-essential spending.

Insolvencies:

Cork Gully comments on the outlook for insolvencies in the UK & concludes The Only Way is Up. It says ‘insolvencies are likely to be witnessed across a range of sectors over the course of the year, as prices rise across the economy.’ It says the economy has slowed but concedes that the labour market suggests businesses have remained resilient. The outlook is more challenging given the removal of Covid reliefs and support.

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Insurance claims.

The Caterer reports that insurer Axa ‘has announced that it will not appeal the judgment handed down last month regarding Corbin & King restaurant group, leaving hospitality businesses hopeful of recouping some losses.’

Footfall:

S4 Labour reports that Mothers’ Day sales were strong across the industry. It says that hospitality sales increased by 6% on 2019 levels and adds that ‘dry-led sales experienced the most growth with a 10% rise on 2019 levels.’ S4 Labour adds that ‘wet-led sales declined by 3%’ and it says that ‘sites outside of London had an 11% growth in dry-led sales this Mother’s Day, whilst London sites’ dry-led sales increased by a smaller 4%.’

Business confidence

The BCC is calling on the Government to provide a ‘clear framework for businesses on ‘Living with Covid’ as high levels of absence rates and infections continue to disrupt firms.’ It says that ‘many firms are still struggling to get to grips with the way ahead’ and says ‘businesses need crystal clear guidance, especially smaller firms who don’t have their own HR departments to help them manage these sorts of issues.’

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The Institute of Directors has reported that its economic confidence index fell to minus 34 in March, from minus 4 in February. It reports that confidence in directors’ own firms has also fallen. Rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainties are said to be to blame.

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Other news:

Mindful of April fool’s we believe it is true that Spain has approved plans for 18-year-olds to receive €400 culture vouchers to spend on the arts and cultures. The money can be spent on festivals and, we think, massive parties.

COMPANY NEWS:

Shares in Deliveroo and Just Eats fell by 6% and 5% respectively yesterday. Both are once again testing all-time low levels.

The Scottish Licensed Trade Association has expressed disappointment that face mask wearing will remain mandatory in Scottish pubs, at least in the short term.

Kerb is to add a number of new street food operators to its Seven Dials Market next month.

The Guardian points out that ‘Starbucks paid just £5.4m in UK corporation tax last year despite making a gross profit of £95m.’

Yorkshire burger restaurant Frankster’s is to open in Nottingham.

The Telegraph reports that Russian tech giant Yandex has put a for sale sign above its British delivery business. Its Yango Deli business operates in London.

Sector investor Imbiba reports that it has invested into a new venture with Adam Breeden and Formula One to create ‘a next-level’ competitive socialising experience, launching in London this year.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Travel Weekly reiterates the views of TUI and the CAA that the outlook for overseas holidays, after a couple of years of abstinence for many, looks relatively bright.

HVS says that the serviced apartment market remains in good health. It says the outlook for the European serviced apartment industry in 2022 remains positive and concludes ‘we expect top line recovery to continue, technology-improved operations to create efficiencies offsetting some cost increases and inflationary growth, and a further buoyant and diverse product offering to enter the market.’

STR reports that occupancy across the US hotel industry in the week to 26 March was down 5.5% on the same week in 2019 with rates some 13.5% ahead. The resulting REVPAR was 7.3% up on three years ago.

OTHER LEISURE:

The value of the UK video games market grew by 2% in 2021, to reach a record high of £7.16bn.

Camelot is reported set to challenge its loss of the contract to run the UK lottery. Camelot has run it since it commenced in 1994.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

The ONS yesterday reported that GDP in Q4 grew by 1.3%, up on earlier estimates of +1.0%.

The British Chambers of Commerce suggests in its latest quarterly survey that 62% of firms intend to raise prices with 77% saying that inflation is a growing concern for their business.

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The Nationwide yesterday said that house price inflation in the UK rose to 14.3% in March, from 12.6% in February.

Sterling higher at $1.3129 and €1.1865. Oil price down at $104.35. UK 10yr gilt yield down 4bps at 1.63%. World markets weaker yesterday. London set to open down around 23pts as at 7am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

• Nick is taking a well-earned break.