Thwaites, YUM, competitive socialising, inflation, jobs, economy & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

So, here’s a question for you; how long would it take you to drink the Pacific?

Well, I’ve never seriously considered going tee-total and, if I did, I don’t think I’d drink seawater.

Because I’d be surprised if billions of animals didn’t use the ocean as a toilet and AI tells me is that ‘drinking the entire Pacific Ocean is, of course, physically impossible.’

So that’s that but, if we run with it, AI tells us that it would take a very long time.

Indeed, if you could manage a litre an hour, quite a steady pace when you’re in the pub of a Friday evening, it would take 6,000 times th

e entire age of the universe to get the Pacific down your neck so it’s not going to be happening any time soon.

But that set me thinking about big numbers.

Because the above, in terms of years of solid drinking, is 8.1 times 10 to the power 16 which is indeed a big number. But so is 8.1 times 10 to the power 7. That’s 81 million years in my language, a long time to stay in the pub and the actual number is a billion times as big.

So proof, it proof were needed, that humans aren’t intuitively wonderful with very large numbers. We’ll expand on that in our purple text to clients at some point so that’s something to look forward to. On to the news:

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Inflation:

The ONS has reported on inflation for the year to May saying that ‘the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to May 2025, compared with 3.5% in the 12 months to April.’ This is higher than anticipated and it may dampen hopes, already low, for a rate-cut tomorrow. The ONS adds that ‘on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2% in May 2025, compared with a rise of 0.3% in May 2024….’

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Economy:

The CBI has reported that the ‘UK economy is facing considerable domestic and international headwinds that are set to weigh on growth prospects this year and into next.’ Its latest Economic Forecast, published today, says that ‘while the economy began 2025 on a strong note, our surveys suggest that underlying activity remains sluggish due to persistently weak demand and gloomy sentiment.’ It adds that ‘higher employment costs following the Autumn Budget are feeding into decisions around pricing, capital expenditures, and hiring, while higher US tariffs are set to create headwinds for exports and investment….’

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UK pubs & bar sector:

On a brighter note, Design My Night has produced a report suggesting there is an ‘optimistic outlook from both operators and consumers, despite ongoing economic challenges….’

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Jobs market

Poundland will close 68 stores and 1,000 jobs are at risk. This is de minimis in terms of the jobs market as a whole but high-profile closures may impact sentiment.

WFH:

Recruitment firm Reed reports that some 68% of UK corporates are likely offer higher pay and faster promotions to staff that regularly make it into the office….

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Amazon has warned that its implementation of AI will lead to cuts in the number people that the firm employs. CEO Andy Jassy has shared a memo with staff in which he says that AI will lead to ‘efficiency gains’. He says ‘we will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs…’

Other news:

In the US, official stats show that total retail and food‑services sales declined by 0.9% in May compared to April. Specifically, sales at restaurants and bars also fell by 0.9% month-over-month…

DANIEL THWAITES – FULL YEAR NUMBERS:

Sales for the half year came in at £120.6m, up 4.4% compared to turnover last year of £115,5m. The group reports ‘operating profit before property disposals grew by 4.4% to £11.8m (2024: £11.3m). PBT rose from £9.1m to £9.8m and the earnings per share increased by 4% to 12.9p (2024: 12.4p).’ It adds that Net Debt on 31 March 2025 was £71.4m (2024: £70.8m), which is an increase of £0.6m due to continuing investment in our properties. It reports that its pension scheme ‘continues to show a surplus of £29.7m (2024: £34.9m). A triennial valuation was agreed by the year end, as a result the Company does not expect to be required to contribute to either the scheme or its running costs for the foreseeable future.’ Daniel Thwaites adds that its NAV per share on 31 March 2025 was £4.31 (2024: £4.26).

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COMPANY NEWS:

Yum! Brands, Inc. has announced that it is to appoint current CFO Chris Turner as Chief Executive Officer, effective October 1, 2025. It adds that Turner will succeed current Chief Executive Officer David Gibbs, who, in March 2025, informed the Board of Directors of his intention to retire in the next year after 37 years with the Company and a successful tenure as CEO.

State of Play hospitality, which operates interactive games concepts Bounce and Hijingo in the UK Flight Club in the US under licence, has reported delayed accounts for the year to 31 March 2024 to Companies House. Headline numbers: During the year under review, the company increased turnover by 33% to £46.9m. Gross margin edged up to 83.0% from 82.6% and exceptional costs were pared back from £5.0m in the prior year to £2.1m. The largest exceptional costs in both years related to ‘pre-opening and aborted project costs’. Administrative costs have risen by a very material 58% (compared with revenue growth of 33%) to £44.6m. State of Play reports operating losses before tax (inclusive of the exceptional costs outlined above) of £7.8m (FY23: loss £4.4m). Unsurprisingly, there is no dividend….

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The MA reports that Sussex brewery Brighton Bier is the latest casualty of the challenging market as it has announced it has ceased trading.

Carl’s Jr is reported set to open an additional six restaurants in the UK before the end of the current year.

HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

EasyJet cabin crews in Spain are set to go on strike over pay for three days next week. The airline maintains that it should operate normally over the period.

The opening of HS2 is to be delayed further beyond the target date of 2033 reports the BBC. It says that Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is expected to tell Parliament today that there is “no reasonable way to deliver” the railway line on schedule and within budget – but is not expected to say when the route will finally start operating….

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OTHER LEISURE:

President Trump is reported set to extend the deadline for the sale of Tik Tok. The President’s press office says he ‘will sign an additional Executive Order this week to keep TikTok up and running.’

Professional tennis bodies the WTA and ITF have called on betting companies to help curb the online abuse of players. The bodies say that some 40 per cent of abusive online contacts came from angry gamblers.

City AM reports that two thirds of Londoners would back a move by London to host the 2040 Olympics.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For CPI numbers see Pubs & Restaurants above.

The Bank of England is thought likely to keep interest rates on hold when its MPC reports tomorrow lunchtime.

Sterling lower at $1.3441 and €1.1685. Oil up at $76.07. UK 10 year gilt yield unchanged at 4.54%. World markets lower yesterday but London set to open around 10 points higher as at 6.30am.

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