Saga, G4M, Theakston, economy, confidence, WFH & other:

A DAY IN THE LIFE:

We commented on coincidence, correlation and causation yesterday and suggested that it’s easy to mislead if you represent one as the other & here’s another example.

There is, perhaps, a correlation between how ‘sophisticated’ a city is and how many people jump red lights.

I mean in Norfolk, green, amber and red all seem to mean ‘STOP’ whilst in London, red clearly means ‘just three more cars, four if there are no cameras’ but what about causation?

Does being ‘sophisticated’ (maybe entitled, a tad, dare we say, arrogant) mean that you run red lights?

Or, and here it gets more interesting, does running a red light make you sophisticated because that could prompt some unfortunate behaviour, or is the whole thing just a coincidence?

Is it likely that hundreds of thousands of Londoners just happen to be taking ‘a long blink’ when their approaching a light that happens to turn to red? Are they shooting it simply for the safety of other road users?

Well, maybe. On to the news.

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PUBS & RESTAURANTS:

Economy & service sector:

S&P has produced Flash PMI readings for the UK economy and for the services sector in June. It says that its composite measure rose to 50.7 (May: 50.3), a 3-month high and the services measure rose to 51.3 (May: 50.9), also a 3-month high….

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Gen Z:

Drinks producer Diageo has suggested that Gen Z remains interested in alcohol but says that habits have evolved and their tastes differ from those of their older peers…

Business confidence:

The interpretation of stats is influenced by politics and, with that in mind and despite the suggestion above from S&P that the mood may be lightening, The Daily Mail reports that ‘pessimism is deepening in boardrooms across the UK as bosses prepare for economic conditions at home and globally to worsen…’

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Industrial strategy:

UKH has said that the Government’s Industrial Strategy, which is centred around eight ‘high-growth’ sectors, has ignored sectors such as hospitality, which are capable of powering growth…

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WFH:

Flip-side. The Times reports that HSBC which, like many employers, is pushing to get staff into the office, has said that it may have to add more office space if it is successful in doing so…

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Other news:

Accountant PwC reports that mergers and acquisitions activity across the hospitality industry globally has fallen y-o-y so far in 2025…

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COMPANY NEWS:

Heineken’s Star Pubs & Bars has reported that it will invest £4.5m in the outside spaces of its pubs this year, the money to be spread across 171 sites….

The Telegraph reports on potential automation in food prep saying that German Doner Kebab boss Simon Wallis is embracing automation’ to offset cost pressures…

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T&R Theakston has reported full year numbers to end-December 2024 to Companies’ House saying that revenues rose by 7.2% to £8.8m with gross profits up by 23.6% to £2.8m. Admin expenses are up and the exceptional credit, representing overpaid duty, of £208k credited in FY23 has not been repeated. PBT is up by 9.3% at £271k…

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Goodman Canary Wharf is reported set to close after nearly 15 years of operation. The company says ‘we’ve made the difficult decision to close our Goodman Canary Wharf location.’

The Cornish Bakery, which has commissioned Tamweel to manage options that may include a sale of the business, reports that it ‘is set to launch three new bakeries in Hereford, Woodbridge, and Portsmouth’s Gunwharf Quays, whilst also more than doubling the size of its popular York Coney Street location….’

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HOLIDAYS & LEISURE TRAVEL:

Saga has updated in a statement to be read at its AGM later today saying that it has made a ‘positive start to the financial year; trading well and in line with expectations…’

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Overtourism fears. The Associated Press reports that some 747 million people travelled internationally around the globe last year with as many as 70% of those travellers visiting Southern or Western Europe….

GEAR-4-MUSIC – FULL YEAR RESULTS:

G4M had updated on full year sales in early April, since which time it has announced the purchase of a quantity of inventory from a failed competitor. The company today reports that, in line with earlier guidance, sales for the year came in at £146.7m (FY24: £144.4m) with EBITDA of £10.0m against £9.4m in FY24. The group reports PBT of £1.6m against £0.6m in the prior year and earnings per share of 4.0p (FY24: 3.1p). There is no dividend (FY24: nil). G4M says that the revenue growth is ‘reflecting early progress of returning to growth in a challenging market.’ The group has seen a further reduction in net debt to £6.4m (FY24: £7.3m and FY23: £14.5m)….

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OTHER LEISURE:

The Times reports that Amazon will invest £40 billion in Britain over the next three years. Much of the money is to be spent in building four robotic fulfilment centres but the group will also refurbish its film studios in Berkshire….

John Textor is reported to have agreed to sell his stake in Crystal Palace to billionaire Woody Johnson. The Premier League will need to ratify the deal but reports suggest that this should be forthcoming within four weeks.

FINANCE & MARKETS:

For flash PMI data, see Pubs & Restaurants above.

The Times reports that ‘Brexit has blown a £40 billion tax hole in the public finances, according to a forecasting audit that finds that the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projections on the impact of leaving the EU have broadly materialised….’

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Sterling higher at $1.3568 and €1.1692. Oil lower on news of the potential Israel-Iran ceasefire at $69.36. UK 10 year gilt yield down 3 basis points at 4.40%. World markets mixed but heading better on the above news with London set to open around 41 points higher as at 6.30am.

RETAIL WITH NICK BUBB:

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