Current Pub & Restaurant Trading in 60 Seconds…

June 16 2016

LfL sales down 1.4% in May in worst month since March 2013:

Coffer Peach data rather disappointing to say the least
New capacity meets sluggish demand, LfL sales down 1.4%
Total sales still up 2.2% (and that’s not including new-entrants, smaller operators etc.)

Pubs vs restaurants, London vs the Provinces:

Britain needs a drink. Pubs (+1.0%) outperformed the casual diners with wet led units +4.5%
The June / July football could/should see sales here build further
Casual diners’ sales were down a ‘hefty’ 5.6% (a.k.a. border-line terrible)
Usual suspects include Half Term shift, poor retail parks, cinema releases etc.
But what about capacity? Capacity, capacity, capacity…?

Another atypical month?

Jan and Feb were influenced by the weather, Easter moved from March to April
Half Term skewed May (and June) and the football will influence this month & July
August could see a holiday surge meaning that ‘normal’ numbers may be a while coming

Our reading of the situation:

April was tricky (to say the least) and May should have been better
For many operators we believe it was, suggesting that there are a couple of losers out there
On recent trading, M&B and RTN come to mind. We may be wrong.
We would expect bounce-backs in due course but trading, overall, is not easy
New entrants are taking share whilst capacity remains an issue for the market as a whole