Current Pub & Restaurant Trading in 60 Seconds…

June 16 2016

LfL sales down 1.4% in May in worst month since March 2013:

  • Coffer Peach data rather disappointing to say the least
  • New capacity meets sluggish demand, LfL sales down 1.4%
  • Total sales still up 2.2% (and that’s not including new-entrants, smaller operators etc.)

Pubs vs restaurants, London vs the Provinces:

  • Britain needs a drink. Pubs (+1.0%) outperformed the casual diners with wet led units +4.5%
  • The June / July football could/should see sales here build further
  • Casual diners’ sales were down a ‘hefty’ 5.6% (a.k.a. border-line terrible)
  • Usual suspects include Half Term shift, poor retail parks, cinema releases etc.
  • But what about capacity? Capacity, capacity, capacity…?

Another atypical month?

  • Jan and Feb were influenced by the weather, Easter moved from March to April
  • Half Term skewed May (and June) and the football will influence this month & July
  • August could see a holiday surge meaning that ‘normal’ numbers may be a while coming

Our reading of the situation:

  • April was tricky (to say the least) and May should have been better
  • For many operators we believe it was, suggesting that there are a couple of losers out there
  • On recent trading, M&B and RTN come to mind. We may be wrong.
  • We would expect bounce-backs in due course but trading, overall, is not easy
  • New entrants are taking share whilst capacity remains an issue for the market as a whole