Leisure & the Brexit vote – Assessing the Impact

July 5 2016

The initial financial impact.

  • 52% of voters (38% of the electorate) voted to leave the EU on 23 June
  • The FTSE100 fell then rose. It is now +3% since 23 June.
  • But FTSE100 is an international index. In US$ terms (pound down 13%), it is down 10%.
  • The largely domestic FTSE250 is down 9% in Sterling terms and down 21% in US$s


  • International earnings are worth more in Sterling terms
  • But UK-centric companies face an uncertain short & medium term future

Is there any tangible, on-the-ground evidence?

  • Companies also lack visibility
  • The Construction PMI was poor but the Services PMI wasn’t too bad
  • Both were 80% pre-Brexit vote measures
  • In the near term, the movement of Easter (April to March), the slipping of the Half Term holiday into June & the football could hinder analysis
  • Additionally, last week was the hottest of the year in 2015. Hence pubs faced tough but restaurants (and cinemas etc.) faced soft comps

Young & Co.

  • It may be misleading to micro-analyse
  • But Young & Co today said that it was +4.1% LfL at wk13 (to 27 June).
  • It had been +5.3% at wk7 suggesting +2.7% in the last 6wks
  • Anecdotally May was > April hence the slowdown was June
  • June faced tough weather comps but should have benefited from the football


  • Very hard to conclude but caution seems to be the watchword
  • Re business. Comment on business confidence => investment => employment will be critical. The outlook here, given uncertainty, is tricky.
  • Re consumers. Employment trends => confidence => spending patterns. See ‘business’ above.