Rising Costs & Maintaining Margins…

Inflation in the offing… It would be surprising if Sterling’s collapse didn’t lead to rising input costs Companies must pass rises on or see their margins fall Marmite, Walkers & Toblerone have been in the spotlight Others must follow – but consumer groups will be vigilant Where will the rises stop? Consumers will face higher…

Profit Warnings: They’re just not all made the same…

Crawshaw & Premier Foods warned on trading in Sept & Oct respectively: Negative profit (or sales) warnings are never good Nor are they neutral but, even if they are all negative, some are more negative than others Existential, business-model threatening warnings: See Monetise, Jessops, Blockbuster, Woollies etc. as existentially-challenged companies More recently, Crawshaw (high PER…

Punch Taverns — improving operator, share price yet to catch up

Stagnant share price despite investment and debt reduction: Today, Punch’s shares languish on a lowly PE ratio of 5.7 (106p). They have been on as little as 4.8 times earnings (89p) this year, and have fallen by 15% since the start of 2016 (Jan ’16: 125p). Yet this lacklustre performance belies the busy activity of…

Tread carefully; recent FTSE rally inflates already hard-to-justify valuations

A stock picker’s market? Stock prices — when did 25x EPS & a 2% yield become ‘cheap’? Recent and regular profit warnings hint at a degree of fragility re. stretched valuations. Restaurant Group, Whitbread, Next, and Sports Direct have all seen their share prices come undone after being rated in the high-teens to mid-twenties on…

Domino’s Pizza UK: Sustaining the Growth

Domino’s Pizza UK – Quality at an Unreasonable Price? Domino’s UK’s business model is high margin, highly efficient, and spins off cash. However, LfLs in its recent Q3 statement were down (from +14.7% in Q3 2015 to +10.5% for its important UK market, which accounted for 93% of group revenue in the period). Meanwhile, DOM…